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KFRE — Kidney Failure Risk

KFRE Calculator

Kidney Failure Risk Equation

KFRE is validated for patients with CKD Stage 3-5.

Progression Modeler

Enter laboratory metrics to execute high-fidelity kidney failure forecasting.

Guidelines & Evidence

Verified

Last Review: 2026-07-17

When to Use

When to Use

CKD Stage G3a–G5 patients to estimate 2- and 5-year risk of kidney failure requiring Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT).
Timing of nephrology referral — KDIGO recommends referral when 5-year risk > 3–5%.
Planning for vascular access creation (fistula/graft) or peritoneal dialysis catheter placement.
Shared decision-making conversations about conservative vs. RRT management options.
Prioritising transplant evaluation workup in high-risk patients.

Required Variables (4-variable model)

Age (years)
Sex (biological)
eGFR (CKD-EPI, mL/min/1.73m2)
UACR (mg/g) — spot urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio

How it Works

Tangri 2011 — 4-Variable Equation

Risk = 1 − S0 ^ exp(LP) LP = −0.2201(Age/10 − 7.036) + 0.2467(Sex − 0.5642) − 0.5567(eGFR/5 − 7.222) + 0.4510(ln(UACR) − 5.137) S0 (2-year) = 0.9240, S0 (5-year) = 0.7762

Risk Tier Interpretation

5-Year Risk < 5%Low — Annual nephrology follow-up suitable
5-Year Risk 5–20%Moderate — Intensify monitoring, access planning discussion
5-Year Risk > 20%High — Expedite RRT preparation and referral

Clinical Pearls

Why KFRE Over "Staging" Alone?

Two patients with the same CKD stage (e.g., G3b) can have vastly different 5-year risks (5% vs. 40%) depending on UACR and age. KFRE individualises risk beyond simple staging.

Validated Globally

Validated in 30+ independent cohorts across 6 continents (Cook et al., 2019 JAMA Internal Medicine).
Performs well across CKD etiologies including Diabetic Nephropathy, IgA Nephropathy, and Hypertensive Nephrosclerosis.
Incorporated into KDIGO 2024 guidelines as the recommended risk stratification tool.

Limitations

Not validated for kidney transplant recipients.
Accuracy may be lower in patients with rapidly fluctuating creatinine.
Does not account for competing risks (e.g., cardiovascular mortality) which may dominate in elderly patients.

Next Steps

Clinical Action by Risk Level

01
Low Risk (< 5%): Annual eGFR and UACR. Optimise BP, diabetes, and cardiovascular risk factors.
02
Moderate Risk (5–20%): Semi-annual specialist review. Initiate access planning discussion. SGLT2i if eligible.
03
High Risk (> 20%): Expedite nephrology referral within 4 weeks. Begin RRT modality education. Consider transplant listing.
04
All stages: Educate on dietary sodium/protein restriction and nephrotoxin avoidance.

Complementary Tools

eGFR (CKD-EPI)
UACR Calculator
CKD Stage (KDIGO)
Kt/V Dialysis Adequacy

The Evidence

Derivation Study

A predictive model for progression of chronic kidney disease to kidney failure.

Tangri N et al. • JAMA. 2011;305(15):1553–1559. Derivation in 3449 patients; AUC 0.90 for 2-year risk and 0.88 for 5-year risk.

Global Validation

Multinational assessment of accuracy of equations for predicting risk of kidney failure.

Tangri N et al. • JAMA. 2016;315(2):164–174. Validated across 721,357 patients in 30 cohorts; confirmed the 4-variable model as highly accurate globally.

Origins & History

Dr. Navdeep Tangri

The KFRE was developed by Dr. Navdeep Tangri at Tufts Medical Center, USA, and first published in JAMA in 2011. Tangri recognised that nephrologists needed an individualised, probabilistic risk tool analogous to the Framingham Risk Score for cardiovascular disease — one that could move CKD management from reactive to proactive.

A New Standard

Since its publication, the KFRE has been embedded into electronic health records in Canada, Australia, and increasingly across Europe. It has been shown to change clinical management decisions in over 40% of cases where it is actively used.

Last Comprehensive Review: 2026-07-17

In Recent Clinical News

Scanning Medical Journals

No new significant updates or guidelines matching this topic were found today. We will check again soon.