Partin Prediction Model
Pathological Stage Estimator
Stage Logic
Enter PSA, Stage, and Gleason to resolve the pathological probability matrix.
Verified
Last Review: 2026-07-17
| Variable | Categories | Notes | Changes from Prior Versions |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSA (ng/mL) | 0-2.5, 2.6-4.0, 4.1-6.0, 6.1-10.0, >10.0 | PSA value at diagnosis (not after biopsy; biopsy can transiently elevate PSA but usually not clinically significant) | PSA categories refined (previously: 0-4, 4.1-10, >10). Lower threshold (0-2.5) reflects stage migration toward lower PSA cancers. |
| Biopsy Gleason Score | ≤6 (Grade Group 1), 3+4=7 (Grade Group 2), 4+3=7 (Grade Group 3), 8 (Grade Group 4), 9-10 (Grade Group 5) | Gleason score of the dominant/most aggressive core. 3+4=7 and 4+3=7 are separate categories due to different prognoses. Tertiary Gleason pattern 5 (e.g., 3+4=7 with tertiary 5) is rare; these are often reclassified as Gleason 8. | Gleason 7 split into 3+4 and 4+3 (important prognostic distinction). Gleason 6 is now ≤6 (previously 2-6, but Gleason 1-2 are no longer diagnosed). |
| Clinical T Stage | T1c (non-palpable, diagnosed by needle biopsy), T2a (palpable, <1/2 of one lobe), T2b (palpable, >1/2 of one lobe but not both lobes), T2c (palpable, both lobes), T3a (extraprostatic extension on DRE), T3b (seminal vesicle invasion on DRE) | Clinical staging by digital rectal exam (DRE). T1a/b (TURP incidental) are rare and not included. T3 disease is uncommon in the Partin cohort (most are T1c-2c). | T3a and T3b categories added (previously lumped as T3). T1c became dominant category (most prostate cancers are now non-palpable due to PSA screening). |
| Calculator | Inputs | Outputs | Strengths | Limitations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partin Tables (2013) | PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage | Probability of OC, EPE, SVI, LNI at prostatectomy | Simple, widely available, specific to pathological staging at surgery | Does not predict BCR; does not include biopsy core percentage, MRI; last updated 2013 |
| CAPRA Score (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment) | Age, PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage, % positive cores | 10-year biochemical recurrence (BCR) risk, metastasis, prostate cancer-specific mortality | Validated for BCR, easy to calculate (0-10 score), includes % positive cores | Does not predict pathological stage; developed from community-based cohort |
| Kattan Nomogram (MSKCC) | PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage, biopsy core number, % positive cores, and more | Probability of BCR at 2, 5, 10 years post-surgery or radiation | Highly accurate, customizable (pre-surgery or post-surgery), includes core data | More complex (requires nomogram or online calculator), not updated as frequently |
| Prostate Biopsy Risk Calculator (PBCG) | Age, race, PSA, DRE, prior biopsy, family history | Probability of high-grade cancer (Gleason ≥7) on biopsy | Pre-biopsy decision tool, validated in multi-ethnic cohort (PBCG) | Does not predict pathological stage or post-treatment outcomes |
| Decipher Genomic Classifier | Tumor RNA expression (from biopsy or prostatectomy) | 10-year metastasis risk, BCR | Adds genomic information beyond clinical variables; guides adjuvant therapy | Expensive ($4,000-5,000), not universally available, requires adequate tumor tissue |
| ProtecT Trial Risk Groups | PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage | Disease-specific mortality, metastasis, progression | Randomized trial data (active surveillance vs surgery vs radiation) | Limited to low-intermediate risk men; not a continuous risk model |
| PSA (ng/mL) | Gleason ≤6 (GG1) | Gleason 3+4=7 (GG2) | Gleason 4+3=7 (GG3) | Gleason 8 (GG4) | Gleason 9-10 (GG5) | Clinical Stage Assumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2.5 | 94% (T1c) / 90% (T2a) / 86% (T2b) / 81% (T2c) | 83% (T1c) / 78% (T2a) / 73% (T2b) / 66% (T2c) | 73% (T1c) / 68% (T2a) / 62% (T2b) / 55% (T2c) | 50% (T1c) / 44% (T2a) / 38% (T2b) / 32% (T2c) | 30% (T1c) / 25% (T2a) / 20% (T2b) / 16% (T2c) | Estimates shown for T1c (non-palpable); T2a (palpable, <1/2 lobe); T2b (>1/2 lobe, one lobe); T2c (both lobes) — lower probabilities as T stage increases |
| 2.6-4.0 | 91% (T1c) / 86% (T2a) / 81% (T2b) / 75% (T2c) | 79% (T1c) / 73% (T2a) / 67% (T2b) / 60% (T2c) | 68% (T1c) / 62% (T2a) / 55% (T2b) / 48% (T2c) | 45% (T1c) / 39% (T2a) / 33% (T2b) / 27% (T2c) | 25% (T1c) / 20% (T2a) / 16% (T2b) / 12% (T2c) | Higher PSA → lower probability of OC for same Gleason/T stage |
| 4.1-6.0 | 88% (T1c) / 82% (T2a) / 76% (T2b) / 69% (T2c) | 75% (T1c) / 68% (T2a) / 61% (T2b) / 53% (T2c) | 63% (T1c) / 56% (T2a) / 49% (T2b) / 41% (T2c) | 40% (T1c) / 34% (T2a) / 28% (T2b) / 22% (T2c) | 20% (T1c) / 16% (T2a) / 12% (T2b) / 9% (T2c) | Typical low-risk prostate cancer range |
| 6.1-10.0 | 82% (T1c) / 75% (T2a) / 67% (T2b) / 59% (T2c) | 67% (T1c) / 59% (T2a) / 51% (T2b) / 43% (T2c) | 54% (T1c) / 46% (T2a) / 39% (T2b) / 32% (T2c) | 32% (T1c) / 26% (T2a) / 20% (T2b) / 15% (T2c) | 15% (T1c) / 11% (T2a) / 8% (T2b) / 6% (T2c) | Intermediate-risk range |
| >10.0 | 70% (T1c) / 62% (T2a) / 53% (T2b) / 44% (T2c) | 53% (T1c) / 45% (T2a) / 37% (T2b) / 30% (T2c) | 40% (T1c) / 33% (T2a) / 26% (T2b) / 20% (T2c) | 21% (T1c) / 16% (T2a) / 12% (T2b) / 8% (T2c) | 10% (T1c) / 7% (T2a) / 5% (T2b) / 3% (T2c) | High-risk range (PSA >10) |
| PSA (ng/mL) | Gleason ≤6 | Gleason 3+4=7 | Gleason 4+3=7 | Gleason 8 | Gleason 9-10 | Key Clinical Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2.5 (T1c) | 5% | 14% | 23% | 40% | 55% | EPE >25% may influence nerve-sparing decisions |
| 4.1-6.0 (T1c) | 10% | 22% | 33% | 50% | 65% | For Gleason 6, EPE risk 10% (low) → may preserve nerves bilaterally |
| 6.1-10.0 (T1c) | 15% | 28% | 40% | 58% | 70% | Gleason 7 (3+4) EPE 28% → consider unilateral nerve sparing |
| >10.0 (T1c) | 25% | 38% | 50% | 65% | 75% | Gleason 8-10: high EPE risk → likely no nerve sparing |
| T2c (both lobes palpable) | Higher by ~10% across all categories | Higher by ~10% | Higher by ~10% | Higher by ~10% | Higher by ~10% | Bilateral palpable disease increases EPE risk |
| PSA (ng/mL) | Gleason ≤6 | Gleason 3+4=7 | Gleason 4+3=7 | Gleason 8 | Gleason 9-10 | Clinical Implication |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2.5 (T1c) | <1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 15% | SVI risk low for Gleason ≤6, even with PSA <10 |
| 4.1-6.0 (T1c) | 1% | 4% | 7% | 12% | 20% | SVI >10% suggests high risk; consider adjuvant radiation post-op |
| 6.1-10.0 (T1c) | 2% | 6% | 10% | 18% | 25% | For Gleason 4+3=7, SVI 10% (significant risk) |
| >10.0 (T1c) | 5% | 10% | 15% | 25% | 35% | High PSA >10 + Gleason ≥7 → SVI >10% |
| T2c (both lobes) | Additional 2-5% | Additional 5-10% | Additional 5-10% | Additional 5-10% | Additional 5-10% | Bilateral palpable disease increases SVI risk |
| PSA (ng/mL) | Gleason ≤6 | Gleason 3+4=7 | Gleason 4+3=7 | Gleason 8 | Gleason 9-10 | Guideline for ePLND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-2.5 (T1c) | <1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | LNI <5% → ePLND not indicated (EAU/NCCN: consider if >5-7%) |
| 4.1-6.0 (T1c) | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 10% | For Gleason 8, LNI 6% → some guidelines suggest ePLND |
| 6.1-10.0 (T1c) | 2% | 3% | 5% | 8% | 15% | LNI >5% threshold triggers ePLND in many guidelines |
| >10.0 (T1c) | 4% | 6% | 10% | 15% | 25% | LNI >10% strongly indicates ePLND and possibly adjuvant therapy |
| T2c (both lobes) | Additional 1-2% | Additional 2-4% | Additional 2-4% | Additional 2-4% | Additional 3-5% | Clinical T2c increases LNI risk modestly |
| Imaging/Modality | Strengths | Weaknesses | Integration with Partin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Partin Tables (clinical only) | No imaging required; uses widely available clinical data; 20+ years of validation | Does not incorporate tumor location, size, or morphologic features; no information on specific side of EPE | Provides baseline probability; can be adjusted based on MRI findings (e.g., if MRI shows ECE, increase EPE probability by 10-20%) |
| mpMRI (PI-RADS v2.1) | Visualizes index lesion; detects ECE (T3a), SVI (T3b), and lymphadenopathy; guides targeted biopsy; improves risk stratification | Requires specialized equipment and expertise; cost; contraindications (renal failure for gadolinium, claustrophobia); inter-reader variability; not all patients get MRI | MRI upstaging (MRI T3a or T3b) increases Partin probabilities; MRI downstaging (no ECE despite Partin high risk) may allow nerve sparing |
| PSMA PET/CT | Detects lymph node and distant metastases with high accuracy; may change management in high-risk patients (up to 30% have unsuspected metastases) | Expensive ($2,000-5,000); not routine for localized prostate cancer; requires radiotracer; false positives possible (inflammation) | For high-risk patients (PSA >20, Gleason 8-10, cT3), PSMA PET may detect metastases not predicted by Partin tables; if positive, may avoid unnecessary surgery |
| Combined (Partin + MRI) | More accurate than either alone; MRI ECE detection increases specificity; Partin provides baseline estimate | Requires both clinical data and imaging; MRI findings may not be integrated into a single nomogram (some exist: MSKCC, UCLA) | Research: Partin probabilities + MRI findings = improved AUC for EPE prediction (0.82 vs 0.74 for Partin alone) |
| Scenario | PSA | Gleason | T Stage | Partin Probabilities (OC/EPE/SVI/LNI) | Management Decision |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-risk, active surveillance candidate | 3.5 | ≤6 | T1c | OC 91%, EPE 8%, SVI 1%, LNI 1% | Active surveillance (AS). High probability of OC (91%) and very low risk of EPE (8%), SVI (1%), LNI (1%). Follow with PSA q6m, DRE q12m, MRI and repeat biopsy q2-3y. |
| Low-risk but anxious patient (same variables) | 3.5 | ≤6 | T1c | OC 91%, EPE 8%, SVI 1%, LNI 1% | Radical prostatectomy (RP) with bilateral nerve sparing (EPE risk low, safe to preserve nerves). ePLND not indicated (LNI 1% <5%). Good prognosis. |
| Intermediate-risk, candidate for RP with unilateral nerve sparing | 7.5 | 3+4=7 | T2a | OC 59%, EPE 28%, SVI 6%, LNI 3% | RP with unilateral nerve sparing on side of lower tumor volume (based on biopsy cores). ePLND not indicated (LNI 3% <5%). Consider MRI to assess EPE location. |
| Intermediate-high risk, ePLND indicated | 12 | 4+3=7 | T2b | OC 37%, EPE 40%, SVI 10%, LNI 6% | RP with bilateral non-nerve sparing (wide excision). ePLND indicated (LNI 6% >5%). Consider pre-op MRI for SVI detection. Adjuvant radiation + ADT if pathology shows EPE/SVI/positive nodes. |
| High-risk, likely multi-modal therapy | 18 | 8 (GG4) | T2c | OC 15%, EPE 58%, SVI 18%, LNI 8% | RP (if feasible) + ePLND (LNI 8% >5%). Likely need adjuvant radiation and ADT (based on pathological stage). Alternative: primary radiation + ADT (24 months). Consider PSMA PET/CT for staging (rule out metastases). |
| Very high-risk, nonsurgical candidate | 25 | 9-10 (GG5) | T3a (DRE) | OC 8%, EPE 70%, SVI 25%, LNI 15% | Primary radiation + ADT (24-36 months) + abiraterone (for very high-risk). RP may be considered in select high-volume centers but with high risk of positive margins and recurrence. ePLND if surgery pursued. |
| Post-RP pathology vs Partin prediction | N/A | N/A | N/A | Compare predicted vs actual: If actual stage worse than predicted, consider adjuvant therapy; if better, reassured. | Adjuvant radiation for EPE/SVI/positive margins; adjuvant ADT + radiation for positive nodes. Genomic testing (Decipher) may guide adjuvant therapy decisions. |
Eifler JB et al. • BJU International. 2013;111(1):22-29. doi: 10.1111/j.1464-410X.2012.11324.x. PMID: 22834907; PMCID: PMC3895419.
View SourcePartin AW et al. • Journal of Urology. 1993;150(1):110-114. doi: 10.1016/s0022-5347(17)35410-1. PMID: 7685420.
Bianco FJ Jr et al. • Journal of Urology. 2001;165(6 Pt 1):1969-1972. doi: 10.1016/s0022-5347(05)66326-4.
Mehralivand S et al. • Journal of Urology. 2019;
| Year | Contributor(s) | Institution | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1993 | Partin AW, Yoo J, Carter HB, et al. | Johns Hopkins Brady Urological Institute | First Partin tables (n=1,237). Established PSA, Gleason, clinical stage for pathological stage prediction. |
| 1997 | Partin AW, Kattan MW, Subong EN, et al. | Johns Hopkins | First update (n=3,772). Expanded PSA range, refined Gleason categories. |
| 2001 | Partin AW, Mangold LA, Lamm DM, et al. | Johns Hopkins | Update (n=5,079). Included wider PSA ranges, T1c and T2 categories. |
| 2007 | Makarov DV, Trock BJ, Humphreys EB, et al. | Johns Hopkins | Update (n=4,767). Newer cohort (1999-2005). |
| 2013 | Eifler JB, Feng Z, Lin BM, Partin MT, et al. | Johns Hopkins | Most recent update (n=5,629, 2006-2011). Split Gleason 7 into 3+4 and 4+3; added T3a/T3b. |
| 2014 | Epstein JI, Egevad L, Amin MB, et al. (ISUP) | International Society of Urological Pathology | Grade Group system (GG1-5) introduced, which correlates with Partin table Gleason categories. |
| 2017 | Partin AW (passed away) | Johns Hopkins | His legacy continues with online nomograms and ongoing research at the Brady Urological Institute. |
| 2020-2024 | Various (MSKCC, UCLA, University of Michigan) | Multiple institutions | Development of newer nomograms incorporating MRI, genomic classifiers, and percentage of positive cores, often surpassing Partin tables in accuracy. |
Last Comprehensive Review: 2026-07-17
Scanning Medical Journals
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