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Partin Prediction Model
Pathological Stage Estimator
Stage Logic
Enter PSA, Stage, and Gleason to resolve the pathological probability matrix.
Verified
Last Review: 2026
| Variable | Categories | Notes | Changes from Prior Versions |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSA (ng/mL) | 0-2.5, 2.6-4.0, 4.1-6.0, 6.1-10.0, >10.0 | PSA value at diagnosis (not after biopsy; biopsy can transiently elevate PSA but usually not clinically significant) | PSA categories refined (previously: 0-4, 4.1-10, >10). Lower threshold (0-2.5) reflects stage migration toward lower PSA cancers. |
| Biopsy Gleason Score | ≤6 (Grade Group 1), 3+4=7 (Grade Group 2), 4+3=7 (Grade Group 3), 8 (Grade Group 4), 9-10 (Grade Group 5) | Gleason score of the dominant/most aggressive core. 3+4=7 and 4+3=7 are separate categories due to different prognoses. Tertiary Gleason pattern 5 (e.g., 3+4=7 with tertiary 5) is rare; these are often reclassified as Gleason 8. | Gleason 7 split into 3+4 and 4+3 (important prognostic distinction). Gleason 6 is now ≤6 (previously 2-6, but Gleason 1-2 are no longer diagnosed). |
| Clinical T Stage | T1c (non-palpable, diagnosed by needle biopsy), T2a (palpable, <1/2 of one lobe), T2b (palpable, >1/2 of one lobe but not both lobes), T2c (palpable, both lobes), T3a (extraprostatic extension on DRE), T3b (seminal vesicle invasion on DRE) | Clinical staging by digital rectal exam (DRE). T1a/b (TURP incidental) are rare and not included. T3 disease is uncommon in the Partin cohort (most are T1c-2c). | T3a and T3b categories added (previously lumped as T3). T1c became dominant category (most prostate cancers are now non-palpable due to PSA screening). |
| Calculator | Inputs | Outputs | Strengths | Limitations |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Partin Tables (2013) | PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage | Probability of OC, EPE, SVI, LNI at prostatectomy | Simple, widely available, specific to pathological staging at surgery | Does not predict BCR; does not include biopsy core percentage, MRI; last updated 2013 |
| CAPRA Score (Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment) | Age, PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage, % positive cores | 10-year biochemical recurrence (BCR) risk, metastasis, prostate cancer-specific mortality | Validated for BCR, easy to calculate (0-10 score), includes % positive cores | Does not predict pathological stage; developed from community-based cohort |
| Kattan Nomogram (MSKCC) | PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage, biopsy core number, % positive cores, and more | Probability of BCR at 2, 5, 10 years post-surgery or radiation | Highly accurate, customizable (pre-surgery or post-surgery), includes core data | More complex (requires nomogram or online calculator), not updated as frequently |
| Prostate Biopsy Risk Calculator (PBCG) | Age, race, PSA, DRE, prior biopsy, family history | Probability of high-grade cancer (Gleason ≥7) on biopsy | Pre-biopsy decision tool, validated in multi-ethnic cohort (PBCG) | Does not predict pathological stage or post-treatment outcomes |
| Decipher Genomic Classifier | Tumor RNA expression (from biopsy or prostatectomy) | 10-year metastasis risk, BCR | Adds genomic information beyond clinical variables; guides adjuvant therapy | Expensive ($4,000-5,000), not universally available, requires adequate tumor tissue |
| ProtecT Trial Risk Groups | PSA, Gleason, clinical T stage | Disease-specific mortality, metastasis, progression | Randomized trial data (active surveillance vs surgery vs radiation) | Limited to low-intermediate risk men; not a continuous risk model |
Last Comprehensive Review: 2026
