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PREDICT v3.0

PREDICT v3.0Adjuvant Therapy Benefit Framework

Absolute Benefit Tier

Model Inputs

The PREDICT model integrates age, tumor size, grade, nodal status, ER/PR, HER2, Ki67, and mode of detection to calculate 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probabilities.

Therapeutic Impact

Modest Benefit

Clinical Strategy

Modest absolute survival benefit. Treatment decision depends on shared risk/benefit discussion and patient preference.

Guidelines & Evidence

Verified

Last Review: 2026

When to Use

Clinical Use

Used during the initial multidisciplinary clinic to counsel newly diagnosed breast cancer patients.
Visualizes the 5-year, 10-year, and 15-year overall survival estimates.
Highly effective visual aid to show patients the exact, numerical absolute benefit (e.g., "Chemotherapy will add 3% to your 10-year survival") to aid in shared decision-making.

How it Works

Variables Input

Patient Factors: Age, Post-menopausal status.
Tumor Factors: Size (mm), Grade (1-3), Number of positive nodes.
Biological Markers: ER status, HER2 status, Ki-67 (optional).

The Output (Absolute Benefit)

The tool explicitly separates the survival baseline (surgery alone) from the incremental, absolute percentage gains of hormone therapy, chemotherapy, and Trastuzumab (for HER2+).

Clinical Pearls

Limitations & Synergy with Genomics

While PREDICT is mathematically brilliant for populations, it struggles with the biological heterogeneity of ER+/HER2- tumors. For an intermediate-risk ER+ patient, PREDICT might estimate a 4% chemo benefit. However, an Oncotype DX test might reveal a Recurrence Score of 10 (meaning 0% actual benefit) or a score of 40 (meaning massive benefit). Thus, PREDICT is best used *before* genomic testing to decide if the genomic test is even worth ordering.

The Evidence

Key Reference

PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer

Wishart GC et al. • Breast Cancer Research. 2010;12(1):R1

Last Comprehensive Review: 2026

In Recent Clinical News

Scanning Medical Journals

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